¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver??

Manifold Markets cotiza Manifold al 60.3% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver??

Está previsto que Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver? se resuelva el 2 de febrero de 2029.

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves based on who has a lower Brier score (each prediction weighted equally).

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Manifold 60.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 19 horas

Desactualizado

28 ene 25, 19:50 UTC2 feb 29, 4:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves based on who has a lower Brier score (each prediction weighted equally).

Locking in the percentages from this market on 2/9/2025 (giving Manifold a 2 week advantage from when the article was published) in order to give it enough time for volume.
After that I will track results in a publicly available spreadsheet.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict?play=true)Because of the advantage I ignored the follow predictions:
#41 Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days.
#43 Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations.