¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born??

Manifold Markets cotiza South America al 34.1% a fecha de 20 de octubre de 2026.

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

South America 34.1%

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multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

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Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

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Actualizado hace 21 minutos

3 abr 24, 18:51 UTC3 abr 74, 3:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidad

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The current pope (Francis) is from Argentina, making him the first pope to be from the named outcome and the first pope from the Southern Hemisphere.

The next several Popes have likely already been born.
In which continent will the first Pope born after 2024-04-03 18:50:00+00 be born?
[image]Respectfully modified from @Bayesian's excellent market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/on-which-continent-will-the-next-po, in turn respectfully modified from @strutheo's excellent market:
@/strutheo/which-country-will-the-next-pope-fo