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  3. Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
Manifold Markets

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

IATecnologíaOne-Off974a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Manifold Markets
Dies before AGI has been developed 14%
Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores

75

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 6 días

Desactualizado
13 sept 23, 18:031 ene 00, 22:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Dies before AGI has been developed14%

Reglas

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Manifold Markets
  • For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.
  • Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
  • This is a follow-up to this market:
  • https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000

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Reglas

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Manifold Markets
  • For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.
  • Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
  • This is a follow-up to this market:
  • https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000