Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2031 12.2%Líder entre 19 opciones
2031 12.2%Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado14 oct 24, 14:05 UTC31 dic 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold Markets[don't bet yet, finalizing details] Will a Musk Company or Elon do large geoengineering projects for global warming?
Manifold MarketsWill we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExReglas
This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius.
- This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target.
- Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
