If the Supreme Court revisits Obergefell by 2029, who will vote against a constitutional right to same-sex marriage?
One-OffPolítica de EE. UU.PolíticaElección2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualClarence Thomas 97.9%Líder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado1 abr 25, 3:38 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES for any justice who votes against a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, and NO for any justice who votes for a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
- Resolves N/A for any justice not on the Court during the case, or who recuses themselves.
- Applies only to the first case revisiting the constitutional right to same-sex marriage by the end of the current presidential term (January 20, 2029), and resolves N/A if no such case occurs.
- Justices' opinions on other related questions, such as whether the reasoning of Obergefell was correct, whether Congress has the right to legislate on same-sex marriage, whether private citizens can discriminate against same-sex couples, etc. are irrelevant.
- This resolves only based on how justices vote on the question of whether there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
- CLARIFICATION, August 11, 2025: If a justice votes to preserve the precedent that there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, they resolve NO, even if it is only because of stare decisis.
