If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?
One-OffExchangesTecnología13a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 63.6%
Sí 63.6%Pronosticadores
48
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado17 nov 22, 17:04 UTC1 ene 40, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
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I'll allow any reasonable type of scoring to demonstrate this, such as the ones described here.
- (With appropriate corrections for multiple-comparisons bias if someone tries a bunch of different metrics.)
- Proving causality would be next-to-impossible for something like this, so I'm only going to require that there be enough of a difference between the score before the change and the score afterwards that it seems plausible this was the cause.
