Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:28 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 96.7%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 20 horas
Desactualizado3 feb 23, 4:42 UTC1 ene 01, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolves YES if:
- I find out that @IsaacKing is dead or incapacitated for at least a year AND
- In the year following his incapacitation or death, at least 3 of his markets, or 50% of his markets that closed in that yearlong period (whichever is fewer), are resolved
- Resolves NO if I find out that Isaac is dead/incapacitated but the second YES condition isn't met in the year following his death/incapacitation.
- It doesn't matter who resolves the markets; it could be Isaac's partner, Manifold employees, a community resolution consensus, a computer program, or anything else.
