¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033??

Manifold Markets cotiza >= 300 al 75% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033??

Está previsto que How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033? se resuelva el 2 de julio de 2034.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

>= 300 75%

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Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 10 horas

Desactualizado

31 may 24, 4:36 UTC2 jul 34, 5:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:

[tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme-nunsfre4wz