¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will my laptop degrade??

Manifold Markets cotiza 2029 or earlier al 56.3% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve When will my laptop degrade??

Está previsto que When will my laptop degrade? se resuelva el 5 de enero de 2030.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

2029 or earlier 56.3%

Líder entre 5 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 17 horas

Desactualizado

26 oct 25, 15:01 UTC5 ene 30, 14:18 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves YES if I notice my laptop's hardware performance has degraded so much that it significantly impacts my usage.

Resolves NO if the year passes without those issues.
resolves NA if I stop using my laptop but I still judge it to be in good condition.
Not sure how I should resolve in case of theft, loss, or damage clearly unrelated to age (e.g. falling from a building).
Currently leaning towards NA, but will announce in a comment if this changes.
Examples of things that would make it resolve YES: