Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 99%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado6 ene 26, 0:52 UTC1 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExFlorida Governor Election Winner
PolymarketFlorida Governor Election Margin of Victory
PolymarketWill David Jolly become Florida's next governor?
Manifold MarketsWho Will Win the 2026 Republican Primary for Florida Governor?
Manifold MarketsWill Jack Ciattarelli be the GOP Nominee for governor of New Jersey in 2029?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Byron Donalds will be the GOP nominee for governor of Florida" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 697,7 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 471,3 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 resultados más
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Byron Donalds is GOP nominee for Florida governor??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 99% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Byron Donalds is GOP nominee for Florida governor??
- Está previsto que Byron Donalds is GOP nominee for Florida governor? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Byron Donalds is GOP nominee for Florida governor??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.