By the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system?
EspacioOne-Off14a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 67%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado5 feb 23, 1:46 UTC31 dic 40, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?
Manifold MarketsWill expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)
Manifold MarketsWill evidence of life be discovered on Mars before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035?
Manifold MarketsEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketReglas
By 2040, will there be strong evidence of life originating on any moon, asteroid, or planet (other than Earth) in our solar system? This includes life that is non-cellular (e.g., a self-supporting virus), that is extinct (e.g. fossils), and that uses a genetic carrier other than RNA/DNA.
- Very strong chemical evidence -- for example, confirmed methane of biological origin on Enceladus -- may be sufficient to resolve this, but I will be skeptical of purely spectroscopic evidence.
