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Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PolíticaOne-OffElección Deportes Soccer Latin America7d

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Lula 96.5%+5.1pt

Líder entre 4 opciones

Pronosticadores

9

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 24 minutos

26 feb 26, 12:414 ago 26, 23:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Lula97%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

Tendencia de volumen

$50

14 jul3d de datos28 jul

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Reglas

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.