Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
TecnologíaOne-OffEspacio3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual5 100%Líder entre 15 opciones
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado22 nov 23, 17:27 UTC1 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Options resolve YES when Starship has launched that many times and still hasn't launched with at least one human on board.
- (e.g. when Starship launches for the fifth time, "5" resolves YES and the other options remain open)
- When Starship launches with at least one human on board, all remaining options resolve NO.
- If Starship is permanently retired such that no more launches are expected, and it still hasn't flown any humans, all remaining options resolve NO.
- Only full-stack (booster and ship) launches count, but they don't have to be orbital launches.
- Launches before market creation count, starting with the April 20, 2023 launch.
