Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?
8.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección10d
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
D+37 to D+39.9 · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Precio guardado
D+37 to D+39.9 26.5%Líder entre 7 opciones
D+37 to D+39.9 26.5%Calidad del mercado
43 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
133,9 €
Interés abierto
3 mil US$
Interés abierto medioCompra / Venta
— / —
D+37 to D+39.9Spread
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
24 sept 26, 21:00 UTC4 nov 26, 14:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · D+37 to D+39.9
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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KalshiReglas
If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:University of Florida Election Lab
- The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column (share of mail ballots accepted) of the "Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration" table on the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The "Percent Returned" column is not used. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the acceptdem, acceptrep and accept_none values for Pennsylvania in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.
Reglas de cada resultado
- D+37 to D+39.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+40 or more
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+34 to D+36.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+31 to D+33.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+28 to D+30.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below D+25
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is below 25 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+25 to D+27.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 25 and 27.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.