How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2.0 pts (24h)One-OffPolíticaUS PoliticsElección3m
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaProbabilidad implícita actual2 67%-1.0ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
62 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
1,3 mil €
Liquidez
177,5 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
21.0% / 26.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 23 minutos
23 ene 26, 21:003 nov 26, 15:00
Tendencias
0%
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
324%
Comparar plataformas· 3
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMejor en general | Media | 24% | 0pt | 1,3 mil € | 177,5 mil € | hace 23 minutos | |
 Polymarket80% de coincidencia · verificado | Baja | 79% | +55pt | 0 € | 4 mil € | hace 23 minutos | Abrir → |
También disponible en Polymarket
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
7.8 pts
-0.7pt79%
+7.8pt21%
+0.7pt19%
+3 resultados más
32 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez media
Volumen total59,6 mil €
Volumen 24h0 €
POLYMARKETReglas
If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$1.4k2 jul27d de datos28 jul
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If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.