Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
Política
KalshiCerradoComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaEste mercado se resolvió: TISZA, 12-15% (97%)
Resuelto: 19 abr 2026, 1:09
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Probabilidad implícita actualTISZA, 12-15% 91.5%+3.7ptLíder entre 11 opciones
Calidad del mercado
11 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
0 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
-
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 112 días
Desactualizado2 abr 26, 19:0012 abr 27, 14:00
Tendencias
0.9%
6.6%
0.9%
91.5%
0%
0%
Este mercado ha cerrado. El trading simulado solo está disponible en mercados abiertos.
Comparar plataformas· TISZA, 12-15%
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMejor en general | Baja | 97% | — | 0 € | 0 € | hace 112 días | |
 PredictIt69% de coincidencia · verificado | — | 99% | — | — | — | hace 106 días | Abrir → |
También disponible en PredictIt
What will be the margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
Cerrados
+79.0pt99%
+2.0pt3%
-18.0pt2%
+7 resultados más
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITReglas
If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 15% to 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if TISZA loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by TISZA minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if TISZA loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if TISZA wins, or the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if TISZA does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If TISZA runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural TISZA will be summed.
- If TISZA wins the election, the margin will be positive. If TISZA loses the election, the margin will be negative. If TISZA ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where TISZA is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 15% to 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if TISZA loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by TISZA minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if TISZA loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if TISZA wins, or the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if TISZA does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If TISZA runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural TISZA will be summed.
- If TISZA wins the election, the margin will be positive. If TISZA loses the election, the margin will be negative. If TISZA ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where TISZA is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).