KalshiCerradoComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaEste mercado se resolvió: Before Jul 16, 2026 (99%)
Resuelto: 14 jul 2026, 15:15
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Procedencia de la liquidación
- Resultado vigente
- Before Jul 16, 2026
- Registrado
- 16 jul 2026, 7:39
- Observaciones
- 1
- Revisiones
- 0
- Método
- resolution_watch
Probabilidad implícita actualBefore Jan 1, 2027 100%Líder entre 7 opciones
Calidad del mercado
49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
907,3 €
Liquidez
242,8 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 días
Desactualizado24 jun 26, 17:0016 jul 26, 3:59
Cronología de Probabilidad
Before Jun 28, 20261%
Before Jul 4, 20261%
Before Jan 1, 2027100%
Before Aug 1, 202699%
Before Jul 16, 202699%
99%
1%
5%
1%
3%
99%
Este mercado ha cerrado. El trading simulado solo está disponible en mercados abiertos.
Comparar plataformas· Before Jan 1, 2027
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMejor en general | Baja | 100% | — | 907,3 € | 242,8 mil € | hace 13 días | |
 Manifold Markets75% de coincidencia · auto | — | 98% | — | — | — | hace 16 días | Abrir → |
También disponible en Manifold Markets
By what date will the 21st Century Road to Housing Act become law?
5m
+6.1pt97.9%
+6.9pt97.8%
+6.5pt97.8%
+4 resultados más
Pronóstico comunitario6 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSReglas
If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An example of such a bill is here.
- Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million).
- Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm.
- Clarification: A bill satisfies the Payout Criterion if it establishes a baseline prohibition or tax on institutional investors buying single-family homes, regardless of specific statutory carve-outs, asset exemptions, or firm-size thresholds.
- For example, the May 14 House-amended version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act qualifies because it explicitly bans these purchases, and the inclusion of various transaction exceptions (such as build-to-rent programs) does not disqualify it.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Operaciones grandes
$5.0k99.9%KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — Yeshace 17 d
KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — Yeshace 17 d$1.3k99.9%KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — Yeshace 17 d
KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — Yeshace 17 d$4.8k98.0%KALSHIBefore Jul 16, 2026 — Yeshace 19 d
KALSHIBefore Jul 16, 2026 — Yeshace 19 d$2.9k98.0%KALSHIBefore Jul 7, 2026 — Nohace 22 d
KALSHIBefore Jul 7, 2026 — Nohace 22 dTendencia de volumen
$1.0k2 jul13d de datos14 jul
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If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An example of such a bill is here.
- Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million).
- Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm.
- Clarification: A bill satisfies the Payout Criterion if it establishes a baseline prohibition or tax on institutional investors buying single-family homes, regardless of specific statutory carve-outs, asset exemptions, or firm-size thresholds.
- For example, the May 14 House-amended version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act qualifies because it explicitly bans these purchases, and the inclusion of various transaction exceptions (such as build-to-rent programs) does not disqualify it.