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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Política
  3. Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

14.8% (24h)Política
KalshiKalshiCerradoComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisión

Este mercado se resolvió: No (100%)

Resuelto: 1 jun 2026, 13:17

Resultado Ganador

No

A 7 días

—

A 24 horas

89%

Consenso
Probabilidad implícita actual
Sí
Sí 0%-14.8%
Calidad del mercado

36 / 100

Baja calidad
Volumen 24h

608,6 €

Liquidez

727,5 €

Baja liquidez
Compra / Venta

0.2% / 0.7%

Spread

250.0%

Spread amplio
Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 11 días

Desactualizado
5 mar 26, 15:0031 may 27, 14:00

Cronología de Probabilidad

Yes0%
No100%
0%25%50%75%100%30 may31 may1 jun
Resultado24hProbabilidad
Sí
Sí
-14.8%
0%
No
No
100%

Este mercado ha cerrado. El trading simulado solo está disponible en mercados abiertos.

Reglas

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.

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Reglas

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.