KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 11 nov 2026, 18:32 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Punto medio del libro seleccionado
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Precio guardado
Before Jan 1, 2028 56.5%Líder entre 3 opciones
Before Jan 1, 2028 56.5%Calidad del mercado
35 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Interés abierto
1,3 mil US$
Interés abierto bajoCompra / Venta
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 46 minutos
Retrasado17 sept 26, 0:00 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · Before Jan 1, 2028
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf an AI incident kills 100+ before 2030, will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals within 18 months?
Manifold MarketsIf the US does not enact binding pre-deployment evals before 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ by 2036?
Manifold MarketsIf ≥8 orgs are within 10x of frontier compute in 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ people by 2036?
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KalshiHow many reconciliation bills will become law from Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiReglas
If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must require external reporting of serious incidents or dangerous near misses involving AI models or systems. This includes events causing or threatening serious physical, economic, environmental, privacy, or security harm, as well as significant loss of control or compromise of model security. The law's reporting trigger or definitions must identify serious, critical, material, significant, or catastrophic incidents, or set a harm or risk threshold excluding routine low-impact events. A broader reporting duty qualifies if it includes such a defined category. Confidential reports to an authority or designated external recipient and public disclosure both qualify. Internal reporting alone, voluntary programs, routine errors, and capability or risk assessments without an incident or dangerous near miss do not qualify. A general cybersecurity reporting law without an AI-specific reporting duty does not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).
Reglas de cada resultado
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.