Will US GDP shrink for a 3rd straight quarter?
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleSep 20, 22, 12:00 AMOct 27, 22, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the BEA reports an annual rate of change below 0.0% in real GDP from the preceding quarter for Q3 of 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, specifically the GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2022.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- The BEA's GDP release for Q3 of 2022 is scheduled for October 27, 2022.
- Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate".
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US GDP shrink for a 3rd straight quarter??
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will US GDP shrink for a 3rd straight quarter? resolve?
- Will US GDP shrink for a 3rd straight quarter? is scheduled to resolve on October 27, 2022.
- How is Will US GDP shrink for a 3rd straight quarter? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: If the BEA reports an annual rate of change below 0.0% in real GDP from the preceding quarter for Q3 of 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes".