When does Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022? resolve?

Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022? is scheduled to resolve on June 29, 2022.

Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022?

PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

This market resolved: Yes

Limited resolution evidence

CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.

Current implied probability

Market quality

15 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Market data

Updated 179 days ago

Stale

Jun 15, 22, 12:00 AM UTCJun 29, 22, 12:00 AM UTC

Probability Timeline

Yes100%

No0%

Yes

Won

Lost

Macro-Sensitive Assets

Rules

As measured by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Q1 of 2022 saw a GDP shrinkage of 1.5%.

A recession is often defined as “two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth".
As such, if the BEA measures a shrinkage of the US's GDP in Q2, the United States will be in a recession.
If the BEA reports an annual rate of change below 0.0% in real GDP from the preceding quarter for Q2 of 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, specifically the GDP release for Q2 of 2022.