Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022?
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Yes 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 123 days ago
StaleJun 15, 22, 12:00 AMJun 29, 22, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
As measured by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Q1 of 2022 saw a GDP shrinkage of 1.5%.
- A recession is often defined as “two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth".
- As such, if the BEA measures a shrinkage of the US's GDP in Q2, the United States will be in a recession.
- If the BEA reports an annual rate of change below 0.0% in real GDP from the preceding quarter for Q2 of 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, specifically the GDP release for Q2 of 2022.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 100% as of April 24, 2026.
- When does Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022? resolve?
- Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022? is scheduled to resolve on June 29, 2022.
- How is Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: As measured by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Q1 of 2022 saw a GDP shrinkage of 1.5%.