Will the price of $ETH be higher or lower 1 week post-merge?
Ethereum
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Lower
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
Higher0%
Lower100%
LowerWon
HigherLost
Rules
In Response to Trader Inquiry: The TRANSITION_BLOCK had a timestamp of “Sep-15-2022 06:42:59 AM +UTC” per https://etherscan.io/block/15537394. Thus, per the rules of the market, the initial CoinGecko candle that will be used for this market is “Thu Sep 15 2022, 00:00:00” in the PT timezone, which has a “C” price of $1606.37.
- The final “C” price of the "Thu Sep 22 2022, 00:00:00" candle in the PT timezone will be compared with the “C” price of the aforementioned candle per the rules of the market.
- This market will resolve to "Higher" if the price of Ethereum ($ETH) is higher one week after the time of the merge than it was at the time of the merge. This market will resolve to "Lower" if the price of Ethereum ($ETH) is lower one week after the time of the merge than it was at the time of the merge. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the price of Ethereum ($ETH) is exactly the same one week after the time of the merge as it was at the time of the merge.
- The price of $ETH at time of merge is defined herein as the "C" price (when the "Price" tab and "24h" is selected) listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum for the candle covering the 30 minute window during which the TRANSITION_BLOCK (as defined by EIP-3675) is produced according to http://etherscan.com. Note that the candles are titled and dated with the closing second, and cover the 30 minutes preceding their title.
- This market will resolve according to the “C” (when the "Price" tab is selected and "24h" is selected, on https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum) listed for the candle exactly seven days after the candle containing the merge timestamp. For example, if the merge occurred within the 30 minute candle titled "Sun 18 Sep 2022 09:00:00", then the market will resolve based on the "C" price of the "Sun 25 Sep 2022 09:00:00" candle.
- If the merge does not occur before January 1, 2023, this market will resolve to 50-50.
