Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first?
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: SBF
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
SBF 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleNov 26, 22, 12:00 AMDec 31, 22, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
SBF100%
Bitboy0%
100%
0%
Rules
If Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is arrested by any government of any country before Ben Armstrong, this market will resolve to "SBF".
- If Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) is arrested by any government of any country before Sam Bankman-Fried, this market will resolve to "Bitboy".
- If neither Sam Bankman-Fried nor Ben Armstrong is arrested before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by any government arresting either Sam Bankman-Fried or Ben Armstrong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first??
- Polymarket prices SBF at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first? resolve?
- Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2022.
- How is Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: If Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is arrested by any government of any country before Ben Armstrong, this market will resolve to "SBF".