When does Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first? resolve?

Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2022.

Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first?

PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

This market resolved: SBF

Limited resolution evidence

CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.

Current implied probability

Market quality

7 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Market data

Updated 179 days ago

Stale

Nov 26, 22, 12:00 AM UTCDec 31, 22, 12:00 AM UTC

Probability Timeline

SBF100%

Bitboy0%

SBF

Won

Bitboy

Lost

Rules

If Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is arrested by any government of any country before Ben Armstrong, this market will resolve to "SBF".

If Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) is arrested by any government of any country before Sam Bankman-Fried, this market will resolve to "Bitboy".
If neither Sam Bankman-Fried nor Ben Armstrong is arrested before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by any government arresting either Sam Bankman-Fried or Ben Armstrong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.