PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability
July 31 15%+2.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$675.2
Liquidity
$18K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 17.0%
Spread
30.8%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.5%
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 21, 25, 10:30 PMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Selected outcome
July 3115%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Orikhiv by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of Orikhiv is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.