What are the current odds for Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by December 1??

Polymarket prices Yes at 100% as of April 25, 2026.

Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by December 1?

PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes

Limited resolution evidence

CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.

Current implied probability

Yes 100%

Market quality

15 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Market data

Updated 123 days ago

Stale

Jul 27, 21, 12:00 AMDec 1, 21, 12:00 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes100%

No0%

Yes

0.0 pts

100%

0.0 pts

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson Janssen COVID-19 vaccines receive full FDA approval on or before December 1, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be the FDA’s official list of approved vaccines, https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states, as well as any official FDA announcements that any of the three listed vaccines has received full FDA approval.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Report a data issue with this market

Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by December 1?

PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes

Limited resolution evidence

CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.

Current implied probability

Yes 100%

Market quality

15 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Market data

Updated 123 days ago

Stale

Jul 27, 21, 12:00 AMDec 1, 21, 12:00 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes100%

No0%

Yes

0.0 pts

100%

0.0 pts

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson Janssen COVID-19 vaccines receive full FDA approval on or before December 1, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be the FDA’s official list of approved vaccines, https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states, as well as any official FDA announcements that any of the three listed vaccines has received full FDA approval.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by December 1??: Polymarket prices Yes at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
When does Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by December 1? resolve?: Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by December 1? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2021.
How is Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by December 1? settled?: Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson Janssen COVID-19 vaccines receive full FDA approval on or before December 1, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET.