Will an earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or above occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022?
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleJan 24, 22, 12:00 AMJun 1, 22, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This is a market on whether at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occurs on Earth between January 1, 2022 (12:00:00 AM ET) and June 1, 2022 (12:00:00 AM ET), as measured by the U.S.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the resolution source lists 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher anywhere on earth for that period.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- To access the data, one must choose the earthquake they are looking for from the list then open its individual page, then open its “Origin” detailed data.