Will Aave have $100m or more of bad debt by November 30?
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
Recently, Mango Markets was subjected to a "highly profitable trading strategy" by Avraham Eisenberg, which resulted in ~$100m worth of crypto being drained from the platform (about half was returned subsequently).
- There has now been talk that a similar highly profitable trading strategy could occur on Aave, one of the most trusted, well-known lending Dapps.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aave has $100m or more of bad debt by November 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET and "No" otherwise.
- Any bad debt introduced before October 21 (e.g. Harmony) will have no bearing on this market - this market concerns new bad debt between October 21, 2022 and November 30 (inclusive).
- The resolution source will be on-chain activity as well as a consensus of credible reporting and/or official communication from Aave.