Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in October?
Weather
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Nov 1, 2023, 6:06 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleSep 28, 23, 7:56 PMOct 31, 23, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between October 1 and October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/).
- If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market may only resolve to "No" after October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
- For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
- This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in October??
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in October? resolve?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in October? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2023.
- How is Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in October? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between October 1 and October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/).