Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states in October?
Weather
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleOct 3, 22, 12:00 AMOct 31, 22, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between October 1, 2022 (12:00 AM ET), and October 31, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET), as listed on the National Hurricane Center website (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).
- If no tropical systems with hurricane status make landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market may only resolve to "No" after October 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
- For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL
- This market will resolve based on an initial announcement released by NOAA that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
