Current implied probability
Up 12%-0.4%
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$84.8K
Liquidity
$5.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.5% / 14.0%
Spread
47.4%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Jul 6, 26, 12:00 PMJul 7, 26, 8:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Up12%
Also available on Kalshi
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
1h
9%
91%
61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$13.8K
24h Vol$13.2K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
- E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
- If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
- Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
- If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$84.8kJul 62d of dataJul 7
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
- E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
- If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
- Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
- If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.