How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021?
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 70 or more
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability70 or more 100%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 147 days ago
StaleJan 25, 21, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 21, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
39 or less0%
40-490%
50-590%
60-690%
70 or more100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Donald Trump Jr.'s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 1, 2021 at 3:00pm EST.
- At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @DonaldJTrumpJr, shall exceed 40,901 (the “Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label “TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @DonaldJTrumpJr, then clicking the verified account labeled “@DonaldJTrumpJr“ from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @DonaldJTrumpJr just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
- Neither Donald Trump Jr., nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “the named outcome". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to “the named outcome". The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @DonaldJTrumpJr will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.
- Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.
- In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).