Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?
One-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (89.5%)
Resolved: Jan 1, 2025, 4:46 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 1:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes10.5%
No89.5%
Won
Lost
Rules
Will a donor who is not currently widely known give ≥$50 million to longtermist or existential risk causes or organizations before the end of 2024, and be expected to continue giving ≥$50 million per year?
- I will only count donations or grants, not impact investments.
- I will count something as a longtermist if it seems like the kind of thing the Long-Term Future Fund or Open Phil's longtermist budget might plausibly fund.
- I will resolve this question at my discretion in whichever way seems most correct to me.
- I may trade in this market, but promise to carefully make sure not to let my position affect the way I resolve this market.