Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.5%
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Updated 19 minutes ago
Aug 22, 23, 12:50 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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Various screeds have been written questioning the accuracy of the world highest air temperature reading currently recognized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); however, the official position of Dr. Randall Cerveny, the WMO Rapporteur of Weather & Climate Extremes, is that "The WMO Archive for Weather & Climate Extremes is always willing to investigate any past extreme record when new credible evidence is presented.
- However, Both the US National Extremes Committee and the WMO Archive of weather and climate extremes accept the 1913 temperature observation."
- One notable case of a decertification of a historical temeprature record is during a WMO review spanning 2010-2012 of the 1922 El Azizia, Libya 136.4F record, where the decertification decision was made on the basis of 5 distinct lines of argument.
- If the Furance Creek record is decertified, the WMO world record high temperature would belong instead to the 1931 Kebili, Tunisia reading of 131F, a measurement which has similiarly attracted criticsm.
- This market will resolve YES if prior to the close of the 2020s the WMO has made a final determination to decertify the 1913 Furnace Creek temperature record; otherwise, it will resolve NO.
- Note that if the WMO begins but does not conclude an investigation, this question will resolve NO.
