Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.5%
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 11, 23, 3:48 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
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This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
- The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.
- Will this hold true for every year between 2023 and 2027 (inclusive)? I will base the resolution on data from the WMO, if available.
- Otherwise, I will base it on the most reliable measurements I can find.
