Will proof of an optimal packing of 17 or fewer squares in a square be shown for any currently unproved packing before 2024?

One-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (95%)

Resolved: Mar 3, 2023, 2:57 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Aug 17, 2026, 6:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 65 days ago

Stale

Feb 24, 23, 1:36 PM UTCMar 3, 23, 2:57 AM UTC

Probability Timeline

Yes95%

No5%

Yes

Won

Lost

Rules

Resolves YES if Erich's packing center (https://erich-friedman.github.io/packing/squinsqu )

lists that the packing of 11, 12, 13, or 17 squares in a square is "proved" (contrast with "found") at any time before 2024.
[image]Currently proven smaller packings are 1-10 and 14-16.

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