Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 87.3%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 20, 26, 4:43 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jonas Vingegaard start the 2027 Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
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KalshiRules
Resolves Yes if Jonas Vingegaard starts a race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028-01-01.
- The race must be a UCI road race, for example a "post-Tour crit" would not count, even if it is a UCI event.
- He has to be riding for that team, not for a national team or etc. He has to take the start, DNS doesn't count.
- Resolves No promptly when any of the following happen:
- Announces retirement before riding any races and also reaches the retirement date without starting a race, or announces that he would not start any race
- Rides a race for another team before riding for Team Visma | Lease a Bike
Open markets
Sports
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.5M
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.6M
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Jonas Vingegaard start another race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028?*?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Jonas Vingegaard start another race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028?* resolve?
- Will Jonas Vingegaard start another race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028?* is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Jonas Vingegaard start another race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028?* settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if Jonas Vingegaard starts a race for Team Visma | Lease a Bike before 2028-01-01.