Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?
One-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Jul 3, 2025, 2:35 AM
Provider-verified resolution
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Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
Will I have >5 minute conversational video call with a fully synthetic AI character or digital avatar, with synced audio and video, which is somewhat lifelike (even if not perfect) and with conversational latency roughly comparable to human conversation before July 2025?
- Other considerations:
- The video should be at 720p resolution or better.
- The audio should sound lifelike and natural without many artifacts
- The video and audio must be fully synthetic.
- They cannot be deepfakes or alterations of existing footage, though it's alright if they're prompted by pictures or short audio snippets.