Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?
WeatherOne-Off3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 67.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If there is substantial disagreement across sources as to whether global greenhouse gas emissions were lower in 2026 than in 2025, question resolution will defer to Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JaromGordon/will-global-greenhouse-gas-emission)(Identical market to: source market)
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025? resolve?
- Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If there is substantial disagreement across sources as to whether global greenhouse gas emissions were lower in 2026 than in 2025, question resolution will defer to Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions