Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.9%
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7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 4:41 AM UTCAug 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
At the end of August 2027, will California be in a widespread drought?
- Yes: As reported by the US Drought Monitor, large parts of California are in at least a moderate drought as per the U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.
- No: Most of California is either not in a drought, or at most "abnormally dry".
- The measure is if there's a drought in August, so this won't close early if there's a widespread drought sooner.
- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West
- Resolution criteria
