Current community forecast
Yes 61.2%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 8:44 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Austin LessWrong attendees start a company with over 1M USD in revenue, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPro Baseball Champion
KalshiMLB: Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles (Sep 19, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)MLB: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (Sep 19, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)MLB: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (Sep 19, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
As determined by post-event survey and group consensus.
- Austin LW has done a Petrov Day since 2015.
- Note: the group's leader will not be present at this one.
- Update accordingly.
Open markets
Baseball
POLYMARKETWashington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals+54.5pt100%
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Yes+49.5pt100%
- Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Full game — Over 8.5 total runs+48.0pt100%
+32 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHIPhiladelphia vs New York M
- Philadelphia+2.0pt59.4%
- New York M-1.0pt40.6%
- Total Vol
- $648.8K
- 24h Vol
- $648K
KALSHIPro Baseball Champion
- Los Angeles D-0.8pt28.6%
- Milwaukee-1.1pt15.2%
- New York Y-0.2pt9.5%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $76.5M
POLYMARKETSan Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Yes+56.5pt100%
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)100%
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Full game — Over 7.5 total runs100%
+36 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)MLB: Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles (Sep 19, 2026)
- MIL-1.0pt58.8%
- BAL41.2%
- Total Vol
- $400K
- 24h Vol
- $400K
POLYMARKETPhiladelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)+64.5pt100%
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: Full game — Over 8.5 total runs+52.5pt100%
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs+36.0pt100%
- Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- MLB: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (Sep 19, 2026)
- MLB: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (Sep 19, 2026)
- Miami vs San Diego
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
- Minnesota vs Los Angeles A: Total Runs
- MLB: New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Sep 19, 2026)
- Detroit vs Chicago WS: Total Runs
- A's vs Cleveland: Total Runs
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (Sep 19, 2026)
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- MLB: Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers (Sep 19, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever? resolve?
- Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As determined by post-event survey and group consensus.