Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024?
One-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (88.5%)
Resolved: Jan 1, 2025, 10:29 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Data as of Sep 26, 2026, 3:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes11.5%
No88.5%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
This is a follow-up to https://manifold.markets/NLeseul/will-an-artificial-agent-ascend-in.
- While a program called BotHack did successfully ascend in 2014, it made use of a strategy called "pudding farming" which allows it to amass all items necessary for ascension in a reliable way.
- More recent versions have made changes to the game rules so that players can no longer benefit from pudding farming and need to use more creative strategies to gather items.
- Late in 2021, a competition was held at the NeurIPS conference to see if any team could build an agent capable of completing the well-known roguelike game NetHack.
- It also aimed to compare approaches using neural networks to those using symbolic logic.
- Ultimately, there were no complete runs of the game by any agent submitted, and symbolic algorithms significantly outperformed neural networks on the challenge's scoring criteria.