Will a new non-AI technology with at least as much impact on society as the internet or TV did be developed before AGI?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 78%
No 78%Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 24, 3:08 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will resolve to a separate poll when there is major news source consensus that human-level AGI has been achieved.
- I'll keep extending it until then if 2030 isn't enough time.
- Should have both high impact and wide adoption, so e.g. immortality just for super rich wouldn't count, but room temperature ambient pressure superconductivity in every device would.
