Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (96.7%)

Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, 9:07 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 266 days ago

Stale

Jul 17, 25, 5:25 AM UTCDec 31, 25, 9:07 PM UTC

Probability Timeline

Yes3.3%

No96.7%

Won

Yes

Lost

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

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