Will a drone swarm cause havoc in a major city by 2026?
One-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (56%)
Resolved: Oct 2, 2026, 8:12 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 3, 2026, 12:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes56%
No44%
YesWon
NoLost
Rules
Either a form of attack, a mishap during a entertainment display, or as part of a distraction campaign.
- Drones working together (3+ individual drones) cause havoc in some notable way.