When does Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2025? resolve?

Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2025? is scheduled to resolve on July 16, 2025.

How is Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2025? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2025.

One-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (56%)

Resolved: Jul 16, 2025, 4:46 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 19 days ago

Stale

Jan 4, 25, 4:19 PM UTCJul 16, 25, 4:46 PM UTC

Trends

Yes

Won

Lost

Rules

This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2025.

The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 2 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2025 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2026, there are fewer than 2 records with a "Closing Date" in 2025 on the "Failed Bank List".
Other questions on this topic