When does Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolve?

Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? is scheduled to resolve on July 19, 2026.

How is Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a set market to allow for early resolutions as teams get eliminated.

Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

One-OffSports Soccer FIFA World Cup

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Unverified resolution data: Spain

Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, 10:10 PM

This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 20, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Forecasters

141

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 102 days ago

Stale

May 17, 26, 3:49 AM UTCJul 19, 26, 10:10 PM UTC

Probability Timeline

Canada1%

Mexico3%

United States of America13%

Japan5%

New Zealand4.2%

Iran19%

Argentina0%

Uzbekistan10.1%

South Korea1%

Jordan1.7%

Australia1%

Brazil5.3%

Ecuador8%

Uruguay1%

Colombia1%

Paraguay1.2%

Morocco0%

Tunisia1.7%

Egypt1%

Algeria19%

Ghana1.7%

Cape Verde1%

South Africa1%

Qatar19%

England22.2%

Saudi Arabia10.1%

Ivory Coast1.8%

Senegal1%

France41%

Croatia8%

Portugal8%

Norway3.1%

Germany6.4%

Netherlands5%

Belgium1.8%

Austria1%

Switzerland1%

Spain100%

Scotland19%

Panama1%

Haiti1%

Curacao1%

DR Congo1%

Iraq1%

Turkey23.7%

Bosnia and Herzegovina2.3%

Sweden2%

Czech Republic0%

Spain

Awaiting result

Canada

Awaiting result

Mexico

Awaiting result

United States of America

Awaiting result

Japan

Awaiting result

New Zealand

Awaiting result

Iran

Awaiting result

Argentina

Awaiting result

Uzbekistan

Awaiting result

South Korea

Awaiting result

Jordan

Awaiting result

Australia

Awaiting result

Brazil

Awaiting result

Ecuador

Awaiting result

Uruguay

Awaiting result

Colombia

Awaiting result

Paraguay

Awaiting result

Morocco

Awaiting result

Tunisia

Awaiting result

Egypt

Awaiting result

Rules

This is a set market to allow for early resolutions as teams get eliminated.

No point tying up your mana for weeks in outcomes we already know.

Report a data issue with this market

Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

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