On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*?
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Hinge (16.6%)
Resolved: Feb 20, 2025, 4:06 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Probability Timeline
Manifold.love4.6%
Hinge16.6%
OkCupid33%
None - IRL42.7%
None - you'll die alone3.1%
None - IRLLost
OkCupidLost
HingeWon
Manifold.loveLost
None - you'll die aloneLost
Rules
I've decided to get serious about finding a mate.
- Where will I find this person?
- *using the words 'true love' in fairytale jest.
- I am very new to online dating (been on a grand total of two non-serious app-instigated first dates a year ago) and also new to dating with the intention of settling down, getting married, kids, etc. (a recently discovered desire).
- I figured I would try three different sites and compare them: one where other humans match you, one where you match yourself, and one where the algorithm matches you.