What are the current odds for On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*??

Manifold Markets prices None - IRL at 43% as of February 12, 2026.

On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*?

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Hinge (16.6%)

Resolved: Feb 20, 2025, 4:06 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

None - IRL 42.7%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 189 days ago

Stale

Feb 10, 24, 11:54 PMFeb 15, 25, 7:59 AM

Probability Timeline

Manifold.love4.6%

Hinge16.6%

OkCupid33%

None - IRL42.7%

None - you'll die alone3.1%

None - IRL

42.7%

OkCupid

33%

Hinge

16.6%

Manifold.love

4.6%

None - you'll die alone

3.1%

Rules

I've decided to get serious about finding a mate.

Where will I find this person?
*using the words 'true love' in fairytale jest.
I am very new to online dating (been on a grand total of two non-serious app-instigated first dates a year ago) and also new to dating with the intention of settling down, getting married, kids, etc. (a recently discovered desire).
I figured I would try three different sites and compare them: one where other humans match you, one where you match yourself, and one where the algorithm matches you.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*??: Manifold Markets prices None - IRL at 43% as of February 12, 2026.
When does On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*? resolve?: On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*? is scheduled to resolve on February 15, 2025.
How is On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I've decided to get serious about finding a mate.