Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 12:52 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "The N.B.A. M.V.P. is an immigrant" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.