If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?
WeatherOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 81.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 23, 11:02 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
- "Recover" means entirely back to normal, same technology level and standards of living as before.
- (The trend line can be disrupted, obviously.) Averaged across all of humanity.
- (e.g. one country being slightly worse and another being slightly better won't prevent this from resolving YES.)
