Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Spain (99.1%)
Resolved: Aug 2, 2026, 6:17 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastSpain 99.1%-0.1pt
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 36 days ago
StaleJul 14, 26, 7:37 AMJul 15, 26, 11:59 AM
Probability Timeline
France0.9%
Spain99.1%
99.1%
0.9%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the team that wins the FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal match between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14, 2026.
- Because the options are limited to "France" and "Spain" and the addition of new answers is disabled, this market resolves based on the team that officially advances to the World Cup Final (the final winner of the match, including any extra time or penalty shootout), rather than the score at the end of 90 minutes of regulation.
- This prevents the market from resolving N/A in the event of a draw at the 90-minute mark.
- France resolves YES if France wins and advances to the final.
- Spain resolves YES if Spain wins and advances to the final.
